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Analisa Wyckoff: HOKI (Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk)

HOKI terus naik. Saatnya mereview kembali. Hal utama pertama: HOKI menembus daerah supply signifikan / resisten di sekitar 780. Sekarang kita lihat lebih detail tiap bar di sekitar resisten ini. Bar 1: Bar pertama saat HOKI menembus resisten penting 780. Kenaikan volume wajar terjadi saat resisten ditembus, tapi posisi closing menunjukkan ada kemungkinan supply besar. Bar 2: Volume masih relatif tinggi, posisi closing, dan pergerakan harga sangat kecil dibanding Bar 1. Semua ini menunjukkan supply besar datang. Bar 3: Smart Money melihat supply signifikan di bar 2 sehingga melakukan ‘test supply’ di bar 3. Dilihat dari volume yang sangat kecil, kelihatannya test ini berhasil. Bar 4: Ternyata tidak. Bar 4 menunjukkan tidak ada demand datang, dan posisi closing di bawah menunjukkan supply kembali muncul. Bar 5: Kelemahan di bar 4 setelah test supply akhirnya membuat Smart Money melakukan manuver ‘shakeout’ di bar 5. Volume meningkat dengan harga dibawa kebawah tapi ...
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Reading EVA numbers: Case in MNCN.JK

EVA membuat analisa fundamental jauh lebih transparan dan tidak berbelit-belit. Here’s how. EVA adalah angka value creation. True profit. Jika positif, berarti perusahaan membuat profit kepada investor . Ini karena EVA tidak hanya meng-cover biaya operational, tapi juga cost of capital lender dan shareholder. Perusahaan EVA positif secara keseluruhan berarti memiliki proyek investasi NPV positif. Investasi yang aman adalah investasi di perusahaan yang secara konsisten mampu menghasilkan EVA positif. EVA = Sales – Operating Costs – Capital Charge Tapi sebagai shareholder, kita ingin meningkatkan kekayaan kita. Agar shareholder lebih kaya, perusahaan harus bisa meningkatkan EVA (dan ekspektasi pertumbuhan EVA dari shareholders) . Jadi, investasi yang ideal adalah investasi di perusahaan yang tidak hanya mampu menghasilkan EVA positif (perusahaan yang aman), tapi juga mampu menumbuhkan EVA (membuat shareholders lebih kaya).  Case Study Sekarang kita ambil cont...
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Technical Analysis (Wyckoff & Elliott Wave) On BWPT & AALI

BWPT You will likely find these contracting trendline to be very important. Elliott Wave practitioners know the significance of this chart by looking at the possible wedge formation. AALI The expected test of supply came in bar 2 after we saw supply entered in bar 1. Bar 3 suggests that the test was successful. I expect to see an increased in volume when the market exceeds the top of bar 1 to confirm that the buying from May 25 is genuine. Unsurprisingly, analysis in BWPT also suggests an important play is coming shortly.
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Gain More Understanding With Sensitivity Analysis: BWPT Case

As far as I’m concerned, building a financial model serves two major purposes: 1.        To reverse-engineer share price to get shareholders’ expectation 2.        Finding important factors that affect a company’s value Unfortunately, without a framework that could clearly link performance measurement with value, building a financial model would lack insights in serving those two big purposes. It could easily fall into an exercise just for the sake of formality. A good model gives valuable insights. Generally speaking, I have found that a model that serves the first point (reverse-engineer) is more useful for investing purposes. It may surprise you, but finding implied shareholders’ expectation is possible without making our own future projections. After all, shareholders’ already done that job for us. Read my other articles for this topic. In some specific situations however, namely a concerning negative EVA...
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